Excerpts from Dubai Interview With Thaksin Shinawatra

Dubai, March 6, 2009 -- Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra speaks with REVIEW deputy editor, Colum Murphy.

The main feature story can be viewed (here).

Will you go back to Thailand to face the charges and the prison sentence that has been handed down you?

Well, you have to understand what is happening in Thailand first, and that is I’ve been ousted. I was the democratically elected prime minister and I was ousted by the coup d’état...

So what you’re saying is that you don’t respect that court decision?

I don’t respect that process because the process is clearly politically motivated against me … This type of thing is not considered as a criminal case in other countries in the world.

So under what circumstances would you consider returning to Thailand?

I think I’d have to wait until the situation was back to normal and I can receive the justice, and also I don’t want to go back and become the center of conflict. If the two sides are confronting that is not good for the country and the Thai people.

When you say “back to normal” when do you see that happening? What sort of timeframe?

In Thailand, anything can happen. If it were to be a reconciliation…I think by this year you will probably see reconciliation in Thailand and we cannot afford to wait longer because of the economic situation, the division of the Thai society, and the government cannot govern actually, both sides. Otherwise the country will be

So right now you don’t have any specific or concrete plans to return to Thailand?

No, not yet. I’ll play it by ear.

You talk about this reconciliation. What shape would that take? For example, what about a government of national reconciliation? Is that something you could support?

I think it depends on both sides. If it were to be national reconciliation government it means that there would be no opposition. When there’s no opposition it is not good for democracy. But sometimes you need it for a short period of time to amend the constitution. This constitution is not working for Thailand. It’s really the product of the military junta, so it’s not going to work for Thailand, and the political process must be reformed to improve to a more mature democracy.

Has there been any movement by Prime Minister Abhisit’s government to extend an olive branch and talk about possible reconciliation?

I don’t think so. I think he’s busy controlling power and solving the immediate problems, especially the economy. And I don’t think he has time to think and he cannot think about a long-term solution or even medium-term solution …

He seems quite determined to have you extradited back to Thailand. Is this something that you are worried about?

No. I never worry. What is meant by extradition? First you have to have that treaty with that particular country. Even that country will consider according to what appears in the treaty. For example, it must not be a political allegation or politically motivated offenses. Secondly, even if it is not a political offense, it must be a criminal case in that country as well. So it’s a long process, and there must be some requirement to meet the extradition rules.

So why do you think the Prime Minister Abhisit is going around saying that he’s going to get you back to Thailand?

That’s for political purpose. He just wants to embarrass me. Because we’ve been political opponents and this is what I don’t like about Thailand or some developing countries. Actually, the elections are a game. If we go by the rules, and we respect the rules, and after the public says we give the mandate to this man. We have to respect. It’s like you’re competing in any tournament like tennis or football. If you don’t respect the referees, if you don’t respect the referee than how can you play the game?

But a lot of people would say that when you were Prime Minister you did not respect the referees. For example, that you populated agencies like the election commission, the anti-corruption bodies with people who were your own supporters and this is one criticism that you hear very often.

Some people are very obvious about where they are siding. If they are siding, they have not positioned themselves as neutral bodies.

If they are siding?…

If they are siding with another camp. So I have the right to criticize them but I cannot do anything about them because they are independent agencies. Sometimes those who sit on independent agencies they are not independent, they are siding. If that were the case, I can criticize them.

So you would deny allegations that you were…

No I definitely deny it the allegation because I’m very outspoken. When someone does not behave well, I will criticize.

Speaking of being outspoken, last week you had an appointment to speak in Hong Kong at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, and in the last days before that you had to withdraw the appearance. Now there’s a lot of talk that the authorities, especially those in Beijing, put a lot of pressure on you not to appear at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club in Hong Kong. Is there any truth in these allegations?

I think the Thai government is really sending out the diplomatic notes to everywhere—to China, to Hong Kong …

So nobody from Beijing…

No, no, no, no. I just feel as a former minister of foreign affairs, as a former prime minister, I understand the value of the relationship between the institutions and the nations. If they are too excited, if they overreact …actually, what I plan[ned] to say in Hong Kong is about global economy. I don’t want to say anything about Thai politics. When I do something that might affect the institution, so I have to be careful.

Talking about your life at the moment, you—as you mentioned—are traveling quite a bit. In terms of logistics and documentation, are you still carrying a Thai diplomatic passport?

Yes, yes I always using Thai diplomatic passport. No, no, not Thai diplomatic passport, a normal citizen.

So they took away your diplomatic passport?

Yes.

And there are also rumors that you’ve acquired other passports in the Balkan states. Is there any truth to these reports?

I’ve been offered a passport from several countries and allow me to be an honorary citizen and give me a passport because many leaders know me, and they know me not in person but they know what’s happening to me and what I have done for their countries. And they want me to continue some thought, some ideas about their countries so they just offer me.

And have you accepted these offers?

Yes, I have accepted several countries.

Can you share those countries’ names?

Probably I better not mention the names of those countries, but I have several documents.

In terms of your visa to the United Kingdom, there’s been some talk about that recently. Your spokesperson, Khun Phongthep [Thepkanjana], made a comment a couple of days ago that it hadn’t been reissued. The British authorities revoked it last year. What’s the status on your U.K. visa?

I never really applied yet. I don’t have any plans to go to the U.K. so I have not reapplied yet. So I don’t know what it’s going to be if I were to reapply.

Could you potentially go to the EU using one of the other passports? For example, if Germany gave you a visa on another passport that’s not your Thai passport.

Yeah my Thai passport.

But for example…

I use Thai passport.

All the time?

I use the Thai passport all the time. I never use the passport from other countries. I use the Thai passport all the time, and I travel with a valid visa. I have Schengen visa, I have resident visas from some European countries with entitle like Schengen.

So Japan and the U.K.…

Japan, I haven’t applied for a visa at all because I’ve been in Japan with a diplomatic passport before but for my normal passport I never applied and I have no need to go to Japan yet. I don’t have any plan to go.

I guess my question is do you feel the net is closing in on you in terms of your freedom to travel the world?

I don’t think so. The world is so big. There are 198, almost 200 countries in the world.

But you’ve said in the past that you’ve wanted to return to the motherland, to Thailand.

Yes, definitely.

What’s it like being in self-imposed exile. Do you find it difficult, is it tiring, is it something that you want to end as soon as possible? How do you characterize it?

Well, uh, you remember, this can be a record, I will go back to Thailand. It depends on when. And I never want, I don’t think I will end my life abroad like some other leaders that were ousted and exiled from Thailand before.

When you go back will you play a political role, do you see yourself as being prime minister again?

Well, it depends on the future; it depends on the political development in Thailand. But I hope that democracy will be in Thailand soon. And if the Thai democracy has not been developed to a mature stage, Thailand will never prosper and be stable. If you can remember Amartya Sen’s books, they are talking about if the country does not have democracy the people might face starvation, so I think democracy is really needed for Thailand and the rule of law.

Why do you think the country is so divided?

After they ousted me, it hurt the whole country. Because I keep winning, with more and more majorities, so some elite groups may not be comfortable about my political power, because of the backing of the people. And the Democrats [Party] getting smaller and smaller.

Who are you referring to when you say elite?

Well, the elites, meaning those that enjoy weak politics. But now when the politics is more stable, they don’t like. Actually the Constitution that has been used from 1997, is the Constitution that I have nothing to do with it. It has been drafted by some elite groups that joined PAD against me, which is I am run the government under the framework of the Constitution that is drafted by them. That at that time they want the government to be stable and want to provide leadership to the prime minister, so the prime minister doesn’t have to be subject to negotiation with the MPs, that is the purpose of the 1997 Constitution.

And then I’m the product of that Constitution, and I’m very strong and also when I did things right the people support me, I get stronger and stronger, so they are not happy, they create protesting one after another, and then backing by Democrat [Party] and military, and finally when I am out of the country they ousted me. So that is very simple, and then they [were] trying to create one word: that I am not loyal to the king, which is … I am very loyal to His Majesty, if you look at what I have done for the country and to the monarchy, I am very respect and loyal to His Majesty, but I have been accused of not loyalty. So that is why all the elite manipulate all the government machinery against me, including the media …

Do you think that you yourself might share some of the blame for the situation?

I don’t think so. If you play by rules, if you respect the rules, if you are not boycott election, if you go election if you lost you lost, you win you win, if that the case nothing can happen. But because you are not able to win under the games, so you want to kick out me and then change the whole rules of the game. So that’s why the people cannot live with the society without the rule of law.

Independent agencies, war on drugs, handling of the south?

Let me explain to you one by one. For the independent bodies, you can see after I left how how bad is the independent agency. How bad you can see it. During my administration, still they can be criticized somehow if they are not neutral. But now, they are really not neutral at all, almost all agencies, you can see that, and then the way they select, they hand pick. If you were to remember the first time the ASC [Assets Scrutiny Committee] chairman has been appointed, and then when he try to be neutral he be kicked out by the military … The people understand very well how bad it is against me.

You have a reputation on being strict on press freedom, is this fair?

TS: You can see that now the media has the freedom or not? After I left, they control everything, after I left. The whole country has been enjoying democracy for long, and during my administration they still enjoy democracy, but when I am being criticized I criticize back, that’s all, nothing I’ve done beyond that, and I’m very straightforward. But after I left, the freedom of press has gone, but they dare not to voice their concern, because they are under the pressure of the military. But now you see the freedom is much less than during my time. So the allegation is not true at all, but it happens that I am very outspoken.

What about the South? People say you handled in a very rough fashion that was not effective.

If you ask Khun Abhisit about Rohingya, you will see the same problem. Sometimes you just don’t know everything. I’m the one who allocated a big budget for the South, my style is iron fist and velvet glove at the same time. For the criminal, you have to use iron fist; for those good person we have to help them, embrace them. So that is why I allocate a lot of budget to develop the southern part [of Thailand]. But there is some instigation in the area where the hard core getting more and more serious. But after I left it is even worse. I think sometime I set up the teams to do their work, they do their own mission under the law, but I set up a lot of independent investigation body to punish them.

What needs to happen for Thailand to get back on the road to democracy? Specifically, how do you see the role of military and monarchy?

I think the root cause of the problem is because I gained momentum of big government and getting more popularity for the people, and I am been falsely alleged of not [being] loyal to the king. So this is when do you correct what has been wrong, things will be better. Actually I am very loyal to His Majesty. If that has been turned back, that, oh, I am loyal to the king, so all the things will be changed.

Would a royal pardon clean the slate?

Well, you know, we probably have to go back to square one. Which is bring all the people back to square one, that is there shouldn’t be any case against each other politically any more. And from now after we do the reconciliation, if anyone did something wrong it must be according to the rule of law.

Procedurally how would that happen?

It can be a law for reconciliation, [by] the parliament, and also must be approved by His Majesty.

Any other possibilities?

I don’t see any. I think every party have to bury the hatchet and then come together. And then from now on we set the rules of the game, and we play by rules, and every party has to respect the rules.

What would Prime Minister Abhisit’s incentive be?

I think the country is at stake. If you think that you want to leave the country like this for long, that will damage the whole country and the people living in the country. So for me, I can wait, I just keep my physical fit, then I can wait.

Do you think time is on your side because of the current economic and financial crisis? Do you think that the downturn globally could actually help you in some way in that Thailand might be facing more difficulties going forward?

I think even that without the global economy that the Thailand situation is getting worse and worse. The rift is going be there, the divisiveness [is] going to be there. You have many governments in one year. You use all the machineries against one side how can the country survive?

But there are also examples countries that have similar patterns of political instability but still manage function and grow economically. Do you think the two are linked?

Stability is the prerequisite for prosperity. Without stability, you cannot prosper.

And you would describe Thailand right now as being unstable?

In no way [stable].

What about the economic policies that the current administration under Prime Minister Abhisit, has introduced. Do you think this type of stimulus package is sufficient? What would you do differently?

All they have to do is recycle my policy because it’s not going to work during this time. Because we have limited budget and also we have to prepare for after the post U.S. subprime crisis. You have to understand that Asia will be the engine of growth … where is Thailand going to stand? Where is the point where Thailand is going to be? We have to have strategy of where Asia is heading for and where Thailand will be part of it.

And you think that the current government doesn’t…

…doesn’t have that vision.

Why is that?

Because they don’t have vision. They have to have brainstorming about the vision of Asia and put Thailand as part of that vision.

In you flyer announcing your talk next week in Hong Kong, you talked about the Asia financial crisis of 1997 and there was a suggestion in that flyer that you had some role in bringing Thailand back from the recent the Asian financial crisis. This actually caused some outrage because people were saying “No that’s not true, it was his predecessor who was in power at the time of the crisis.”

When I came in, the debt is 57% of GDP, the stock became very low, and foreign reserve very low and with the IMF debt.

After two years in office, I paid of IMF loan two years in advance, the reserve is piling up quickly, the public debt for GDP has come down to 30-something. So is that the predecessor or myself, my government?

We’ve done a lot of things; we even changed the policies of the Central Bank. That’s the reason why we managed to bring the foreign currency back to Thailand. And then we are piling up the reserve. We can invest more. We have less percentage of the debt and also I managed to have a balanced budget. But after I left [laughs] there is a deficit. And the debt now is increasing and the deficit is getting bigger.

If you were in power tomorrow, what sort of economic policies would you put in place given the environment that you’re facing?

Now the stimulus package should not be for spending only, it should be for economic change. You have to change where you put yourself in the post subprime world. So that budget has to be allocated for that purpose. If you are just thinking about spending and consumption, it’s not enough anymore.

So where do you see Thailand’s role in the post-subprime crisis?

We have to think about the creative economy. You have to produce something that’s not just the same as other countries and competing in the same market, cheap and selling cheaply. That’s not going to work anymore.

But every country, Malaysia (neighboring Thailand), even Vietnam, everybody has this mantra of “let’s go up the value chain,” what is different about Thailand? Why can Thailand do it more than other countries?

You have your own culture. You have your own talent. You have to find something that you can build the country in such a way that you’re not going to be trapped in producing cheap products. We still have quite good savings and also quite good pools of skilled laborers. But the production capability that is now excess [capacity] because we can’t produce and sell enough anymore: how can you utilize those resources wisely? So you have to sit down and map out new strategies for them. Not just only trying to do anything by just offhand like that. So you have to sit down and find a way and see where the world is going to be and where we put ourselves in that process.

And what sort of investment should be needed to get there? Are we looking at more money into developing education, for example?

Oh yes, you need to build infrastructure. You need to create changes. You cannot do everything the same thing: you cannot be export-led growth economy only, 54% of GDP are export, so when export [growth] fell down under 15% Thailand would be in trouble. If GDP can only grow 5%, debt would be another problem. Thailand would be in trouble. If GDP can grow less than 5%, that’s definitely a lot of problems. So you have to balance everything. You have to plan the growth. You have to plan the change. You have to plan the future by infrastructures …physical infrastructure and infrastructure for new talent. So you have to plan and drive it. Sometimes policy may be the same but implementation may not be the same.

Is there a role for the United States in the evolution of Thailand either from an economic perspective or political perspective? Do you see Washington in particular having any sort of stake or role?

I think if Washington sticks to democratic value and prioritizes democratic values their top top priority in building relations, that would help a lot. But in the past, the U.S., even the military junta, the U.S. have accepted the junta. That was quite disappointing, especially during the Bush administration.

You would have expected the Bush administration to be more on the side of…

Democracy. Not my side. Democracy’s side. He [George W. Bush] worried about fighting terrorism too much and he forgot the democratic world.

So do you feel betrayed by George W. Bush?

I don’t think so. I don’t consider it a personal issue. But I consider that as an institution of the U.S., democracy should be something that U.S. is strongly advocating.

What is your wish list for the Obama administration in terms of Thailand?

I don’t know. I haven’t met President Obama but I think he is more on democracy’s side.

So you’re optimistic that there will be some kind of change?

We don’t expect for any political pressures from U.S. at all. Internally, Thailand will realize ourselves that we need to do something.

From an economic perspective, who should you be reaching out to?

Well the U.S. has to help themselves first [laughs]. I don’t think the U.S. can help any other countries. But what the U.S. is trying to do, the U.S. still has a long way to go. They recognize the loss in the banking system $1 trillion already, but the whole banking system probably needs capital of another $1 trillion in 2010. That means that the banking [sector] cannot provide the loan up to $10 trillion to $12 trillion if the capital adequacy is gone about $1 trillion. So the credit crunch is still in the U.S. The stimulus package launched by President Obama, it helps but it’s still not enough. It will take some time. The expectation of economic recovery in second half 2009 is probably unrealistic. You will probably see mild economic recovery in 2010.

So what about foreign direct investment in Thailand? Since you were ousted, there have been some changes in the business law and mixed signals to the foreign investment community. What do you think about this and what would you do differently?

Asia would be engine of growth to replace the consumption-led growth of U.S. government. If that’s the case, the Asian countries—including Thailand—have to open for trade and investment from other countries. And also more of the Asian wide trades and investment are going to be there as well. So we have to prepare the laws accordingly. If you are not prepared, you’re trying to close your country, it’s not going to work. The money you generate from your country is not enough to fuel the growth, fill the prosperity in Thailand. You need to open up trade and investment from abroad. So you have to be well prepared with the law. If you amend the law in the opposite … that is you are missing the boat.

I guess you would characterize yourself as being a reformer; you introduced many new changes in Thailand. Are there any other people like you in the country right now? Do you see any pockets of reformists, of people who are looking to change things economically and politically?

I’m the victim of the reformist, so there would be scared on the political leaders if they think about political reforms in the future, they will be scared. What have been done to me … so they will scare?

So you think that the current situation has dampened the prospect of reform in Thailand for some time?

Yes, I think so.

A key message to the people of Thailand, both your supporters (the so-called “red-shirts”) and the other citizens out there in Thailand: what would your message be? What would you like them to understand about you in this point in time?

First of all, I have been alleged of not being loyal to His Majesty the king, but actually I am very loyal to His Majesty the king. I am a domestic dog that can be tamed any time. I’m tame already and I can be tamed again. So I’m really loyal to His Majesty the king.

Secondly, we are riding on the same boat that is the Thailand country. If we are fighting each other, the boat will sink. The boat will never arrive to shore. So, instead of fighting, we join him and sail the boat to the shore, so everybody’s safe. I think we have to turn together. Now if you don’t love each other, love His Majesty. His Majesty has been working hard for the people. He is quite old. He needs some kind of moral support from his own citizens. If the citizen of His Majesty is fighting, it’s not good for the country. Everyone is driving the force in Thailand should come together.  So all the forces will be able to join hands and country’s reconciliation will happen.

So when you think about Thailand in 10 years from now are you fundamentally optimistic or pessimistic?

Well it depends. When the mechanics went wrong, if you correct it, it can run better. But if you don’t correct it, more and more, the gears will be biting each other. And if it gets fixed, the gears will not be running well enough because they have been biting each other. So we should correct the gears and have it move in the correct way, the right direction, so Thailand can come back normal very quickly. Thailand is … if I were to advise the government and the government was to believe me, I think things can be moving quickly because it’s not that difficult for Thailand to be back on normal if we’re able to reconcile.

“Advise” what does that mean exactly?

The condition is that the reconciliation must be there. Whoever is the government, I could just share my experience that we should do this and not to do that and we should use the resources here. If they think that I have wishful thinking, that I want Thailand to be prosperous.

So you’re willing to go back and act as this kind of… adviser…

Whatever I can contribute for the country and for the monarchy I will do my best.