A New Phase in an 'Endless War’?

Posted January 9, 2009

Exactly one year after the Sri Lanka government pulled out of a six-year cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and took the fight to the rebels, jubilant crowds in the streets of the capital Colombo were celebrating a major victory by the Sri Lankan military over the LTTE. But it would be premature to believe that this is the end of the bloody secessionist movement that has claimed thousands of Sri Lankan lives over three decades.

The capture of the Northern town of Kilinochchi, the de-facto administrative and political capital of the LTTE, by the Sri Lankan army on Jan. 2 can indeed be read as a major setback for the rebels, who have been challenging the Sri Lankan state for over a quarter of a century. After the loss of the eastern province to the Sri Lankan army in 2007, the fall of Kilinochchi is a symbolic blow to the rebels’ dream of a Tamil homeland. The administrative structure put in place by them in the past 10 years—complete with a parallel court system, police force and banking system—is now defunct and with it tangible signs of a separate state.

Strategically too it is a victory for the government. The fall of Kilinochchi has cleared the way for security forces to re-establish control over a vital highway linking the northern Jaffna peninsula with the rest of the country. Jaffna, which has a population of nearly half a million people and a considerable military presence, used to be supplied by air and sea because the Tigers controlled the land route. The rebels, leaving behind a ghost town to be conquered by the government forces, have retreated to Mulaittivu, the last important town in their control. They are now confined to a small area along the northeastern coastal district.

The war weary people of the South were soon reminded that the loss of the Tigers’ capital had not incapacitated the LTTE. Within hours of President Rajapakse’s broadcast announcing an “unparalleled victory” a suicide bomber attacked the Sri Lankan Air Force headquarters in Colombo, killing two and causing injuries to over 30 others. The next day, a bomb exploded in front of the Red Mosque in the Colombo Fort, injuring three.

Rather than the end of the war, the capture of Kilinochchi spells perhaps the beginning of a new phase in the “endless war” between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan state. Cornered in the Wanni jungles the LTTE leader will now wage a guerilla war in the north and an asymmetrical war in the South, and perhaps the East, where he will pit his suicide bombers against economic targets and, when the situation gets desperate, civilian targets.

The government’s “peace with war” strategy in the North and its revitalization of the political process in the multicultural east, where a breakaway faction of the LTTE is sharing power with the government, has shown signs of success in tackling the insurgency. But the human costs have been immense. As the fighting spreads, over 200,000 civilians were displaced and often cornered in rebel-held areas. The government has done little to win over the Tamil people of the country and shows no signs of a change in strategy.

Through rhetoric and symbolic acts the message conveyed is that the country belongs to the 75% of Sinhalese. In this context a weakened LTTE can survive in spite of dwindling financial support from the diaspora and the loss in taxes levied in areas formerly under its control. It can survive as a relic in the post 9/11 world as long as it still attracts uncoerced recruits, in spite of the increasingly visible authoritarian nature of its movement.

What is needed today is more than a vague announcement that local government and provincial council polls will be held within six months of a victory in Mullaitivu. The Tamil people must be offered a deal founded on equality and justice that will win their trust. More than a viable constitutional package—it has been discussed for over a decade—what is lacking is the political will and courage to create a more democratic and equitable country for all communities.

The Sri Lankan ground forces, backed by helicopter gunships, are advancing towards Mullaittivu, the jungle district along the northeastern seaboard, where the Tigers are known to have their main military facilities. Government troops are also moving further north of their positions in Kilinochchi in a bid to retake the strategically vital Elephant Pass which was lost to the Tigers in April 2000. Elephant Pass lies at the entrance to the Jaffna peninsula which security forces wrested from rebel control in 1995.

Defense sources promise an end to the war this year and hope to capture Vellupillai Prabhakaran, the reclusive leader of the LTTE wanted for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, alive.

The resilience of a ruthless war machine such as the LTTE must not, however, be underestimated. The next few months will tell whether Sri Lanka will be the theater of a renewed “endless war” and bring credence to the thesis of a failure of counterinsurgency strategies designed to physically eliminate violent anti-state movements. The Sri Lankan government needs to reach out to the Tamil people and allay their fears of majoritarianism. Hearts and minds may be a cliché but it’s what is needed to end this 30 year conflict.

Ms. Wickramasinghe is a Professor in the Department of History and International Relations, University of Colombo and a Research fellow at the Shelby Cullom Davis Center for Historical Studies, Princeton University.