Time for an 'Orange Revolution'
by Jamie F. Metzl
Posted April 15, 2009
The see-saw color war of Thai politics is teetering once again.
Thaksin Shinawatra came to power in 2001 and built a coalition based on insider politics, the support of the police, and, perhaps most importantly, the backing of Thai farmers and urban workers who had previously felt disenfranchised by the privileged classes.
When the backlash against official corruption and perceived authoritarian populism and fiscal irresponsibility came to a head, Mr. Thaksin’s red tide was swept away by a sea of yellow shirt-clad members of the Thai establishment—middle class, elites, royalists, and the Thai military.
After the 2006 coup, elections were held that brought the red-shirted Thaksinites back to power, albeit with Mr. Thaksin now in exile, a process that was reversed four months ago when the Thai Supreme Court paved the way, alongside a sea of yellow-shirted protesters, for the current Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva to come to power.
Now Mr. Thaksin has called for a popular revolt, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean)-led East Asia Summit has been shut down after being stormed by red-shirted protestors, violence has erupted in Bangkok, martial law has been declared, and the color wars have started again with no end in sight. Or is there?
Somehow, somewhere, someone has to put an end to this see-sawing back and forth of Thai politics before it is too late. Perhaps it is easy for someone sitting at a computer 9,000 miles away to call for compromise on both sides, but it is clear from this distance that the zero-sum approach to Thai politics is leading the country down a rat hole.
It's also clear that both sides have something valid to say: The red shirts are right that the poor deserve better health care, more access to capital, and a greater voice in Thai politics. The yellow shirts are right that government institutions need to be strengthened, that state assets cannot be used to enrich corrupt government officials, and that the state treasury cannot be any politician’s or party’s campaign fund. Thailand needs more democracy, stronger institutions, and more accountability for its officials—goals which should ultimately appeal to all Thais if framed correctly.
The problem is that Thai politics has become so polarized that it’s difficult for different factions to find common ground. So what’s the way forward? Are there not 10 elder statesmen and women, five from each side, who might come together to map out a compromise? Surely respected representatives from the yellow-shirts and the red-shirts can find common cause to bring Thailand’s democracy back from the brink?
What’s clear is that the current back and forth between red and yellow revolutions will not be sustainable for Thailand, and that the only way forward will ultimately be an orange revolution, part yellow part red, that seeks to address the legitimate concerns of both sides and to lay out an inclusive vision for Thailand’s long-term stability, security, prosperity, and participatory democracy.
Let the orange revolution begin.
Jamie F. Metzl is the executive vice president of the Asia Society and a former member of the National Security Council under U.S. President Bill Clinton. The views expressed are his own.
