Thailand's Coup in Disguise
by Leslie Hook
Posted December 9, 2008
After months of unrest and violence, Thailand’s political crisis has moved off the streets and into the halls of parliament. Over the next few days the Democrat Party and the Puea Thai Party will be jostling for control of a new government. The fact that this battle is being fought in parliament, rather than in occupied airports, is a positive step, and will result in a more stable Thailand in the short term. But in the long term, regardless of which political party comes out on top, Thailand’s democracy will be the loser.
The protesters who occupied government buildings and two commercial airports in Bangkok may be physically gone, but their memory—and the threat that they will return—explains everything about the negotiations taking place this week. Those protesters call themselves the People’s Alliance for Democracy, but in fact they represent the forces in Thailand that are opposed to real democracy: members of the military and urbanites who believe former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is corrupt, and resent the “uneducated” rural millions who elected him and his allies.
The PAD has called for a new electoral system, under which 30% of parliament would be elected, and 70% would be appointed. They also called for the then prime minister, Somchai Wonsawat, to stand down. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Constitutional Court hurried to wrap up a vote-buying case against Mr. Somchai and his party, the People’s Power Party. The court found Mr. Somchai and 36 party leaders guilty last Tuesday, which forced the PPP to dissolve, and appoint an interim prime minister (who is also pro-Thaksin) in Mr. Somchai’s place.
Now that the dust has settled from the last several months of protests, the two most likely outcomes are that the opposition Democrat Party will succeed in forming a coalition government, or that interim prime minister will dissolve parliament and call for new elections. Over the weekend, the Democrat Party claimed it had enough support to form a new government, and on Monday the secretary general of the party had called for an emergency session of parliament so that the Democrats could vote in their chosen prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. If the speaker of the house and the royal palace approve this request, Parliament could convene this week. However, should Democrat victory look inevitable, the interim prime minister, who was Mr. Somchai’s deputy, could dissolve parliament and call for new elections. This would buy more time for Puea Thai (which is basically a renamed PPP) to bolster its ranks, although politicians are not eager to start campaigning again less than a year after their last election.
Even barring a dissolution of parliament, the Democrat’s victory is still not assured. The lynchpins in the parliamentary struggle are a cluster of smaller parties who used to be the loyal coalition partners with the PPP, but now seem willing to form a new government with the Democrats in exchange for powerful ministerial positions and other sweeteners. There is also a faction of 37 former PPP parliamentarians, led by Newin Chidchob, who appear willing to defect to the Democrat Party. Puea Thai is working hard to draws these groups back into its fold. Some observers say Thaksin Shinawatra’s ex-wife flew back to Bangkok on Friday to help rally the troops, although she says she has returned only to visit her ailing mother.
Why is the former PPP, voted into office in December in a landslide, suddenly so unpopular? Looking at the numbers alone, it should have been a cakewalk for Puea Thai to reassemble its majority. But the unrest of the last several months has left its mark: Parliamentarians got the message that they were not to elect another pro-Thaksin prime minister. If they did, the PAD said in a statement, the PAD would return. Even though the PAD's supporters are no longer on the streets, they are still holding the political system hostage to their demands.
Ms. Hook is an editorial writer for The Wall Street Journal Asia.
