A 'People's Victory' in Malaysia
by Colum Murphy
Posted August 26, 2008
Permatang Pauh, Malaysia—Anwar Ibrahim’s impressive victory in the Permatang Pauh by-election brings the possibility of a new government for Malaysia closer—if only by a little.
“This is the people’s victory,” Mr. Anwar told a crowd of supporters after winning more than 66% of some 47,000 votes cast. “Permatang Pauh has given a clear signal to the leadership of this country. We demand change. We want freedom. We don’t want to live with corruption and oppression.”
The victory here in Permatang Pauh was a sweet one. But Mr. Anwar and his supporters still have a very long way to go to make their dream a reality. Not only will he need to work at consolidating his three-party alliance, Mr. Anwar also needs to woo an additional 30 or so parliament members from Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi’s ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional (BN). Securing such mass defections won’t be easy, especially since the BN will surely put up a strong fight.
Of even greater concern is whether Malaysians will go all the way and push for a change in government, or instead be content with having a strong opposition—something which has been sorely missing since the country gained independence from the United Kingdom 51 years ago.
“Only through an act of God” will Mr. Anwar secure the numbers he needs, says Arif Shah Omar Shah, the BN candidate who lost to Mr. Anwar in Permatang Pauh. The BN has learned much as a result of its poor showing at the polls in the general elections last March, he said. Now the party is “more accommodating” in terms of promoting greater participation in the political process to non-Malays. This, and other concessions from BN, will be enough to thwart Mr. Anwar’s quest for defectors.
But Mr. Anwar has a strategy. For one, he has his sights on the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak. “Alienation” and “marginalization” have been the results of Kuala Lumpur’s handling of these two remote states, he said. “Unless something is done to help, they will continue to have major grievances,” he said.
Mr. Anwar has plans to address these grievances. He hopes his offer to increase oil royalties to states such as Sabah from the current 5% to around 20% will make joining his alliance attractive to MPs from the BN-led East Malaysian states. Sabah alone could provide up to one-third of the seats Mr. Anwar would need to form a government.
But in the case of Sabah at least, divisions among politicians run deep, making for difficult negotiations. Ultimately, it could be the case of whoever comes up with the better offer will get the Sabahans’ support. As the BN grows increasingly desperate, getting the support of the East Malaysians is by no means a done deal.
Political maneuvering by Mr. Anwar in the weeks ahead is only part of the story. According to Khoo Boo Teik, an associate professor at the Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Social Sciences, the greater challenge will be convincing ordinary Malaysians that Mr. Anwar and his alliance can successfully lead the country.
As a result of the March 2008 elections, Mr. Anwar’s PKR now controls five of the 13 states which make up Malaysia. “It’s not just a question of being in opposition in parliament, but being in government in five states and what you do with that,” said Mr. Khoo.
If BN fails to reform itself, and if Mr. Anwar’s team does a good job in running the states under its controls, then there is a possibility that the people of Malaysia could give a chance to the new government.
“Of course, it could be that the people are only looking for an opposition that plays a stronger role and that puts out policy alternatives,” that would keep the current government in check said Mr. Khoo.
For tonight and the next few days, such concerns will surely be far from the mind of Anwar Ibrahim as he basks in the glory of a long-awaited election victory.
Mr. Murphy is deputy editor of the REVIEW.
