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Oil & Energy Sept. 2007: India’s Hydrocarbon Future

March 2008

The international consequences of India’s future energy appetite have generally been underestimated. Demand forecasts for China and the United States are certainly greater than India’s. But this has only kept the spotlight off of India’s projected consumption. With one of the world’s fastest growing economies and the world’s second-largest population, India is expected to become the third largest energy consumer in the world in 25 years. Significantly, the country seems likely to meet three-quarters of its requirements solely through fossil fuels.

Oil & Energy Sept. 2007: China’s Quest for Overseas Oil

March 2008

In recent years it has been in vogue for some American policy makers and pundits to criticize the overseas expansion of China’s national oil companies (NOCs) as mercantilist. Even the Bush administration has joined the chorus, taking the Chinese government to task for attempting to “follow a mercantilism borrowed from a discredited era” through its efforts to “somehow ‘lock up’ energy supplies around the world.”

Oil & Energy Sept. 2007: Tapping the Promise of Nuclear

March 2008

Around the world there is much talk of a “nuclear renaissance.” Yet in reality, the majority of nuclear reactors—both those under construction and planned—are located in Asia. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan already have well-established nuclear programs, which are expected to continue, maintaining their nuclear shares of electricity at least at current levels. In South Korea, nuclear power generates around 40% of electricity. Other countries in the region are expected to get their first nuclear plants by 2020, notably Vietnam and Indonesia. Other possible candidates include Malaysia and Thailand. But China and India offer the brightest prospects for significant growth in the number of nuclear-power plants.

Telecoms Dec. 2007: The Talkative Indian

March 2008

In 1995 the first mobile phone call was made in India, seven years after China started mobile-phone services. At 17 rupees per minute ($0.42 at today’s exchange rates) for both incoming and outgoing calls made from a 40,000 rupee handset, mobile-phone services were far beyond reach even for a well-to-do business owner. Fast forward to 2007—a call can be made for less than one rupee from an 800-rupee handset and you can use a mobile for a lifetime without spending a single rupee on incoming calls. India now has some of the lowest telecom tariffs in the world and the market expects to break the 600-rupee barrier for handsets soon.

Telecoms Dec. 2007: China Misdials on Mobiles

March 2008

In China these days, innovation is on everyone’s lips. In his address to the 17th Party Congress on Oct. 15, President Hu Jintao mentioned it over 35 times. The logic for China to pursue innovation and move up the value chain is obvious. China’s role as a manufacturing workshop for the world is reaching its limits. Polluted air and water in China are causing growing social tensions and health problems. China’s ballooning surpluses with both the United States and the European Union are generating mounting trade friction yet any appreciation of the yuan will invariably reduce the appeal of China as a low-cost manufacturer.

Health Nov. 2007: The Asian Cure for Health Care

March 2008

The issue of health care ranks as one of the hottest political and economic issues discussed by politicians and experts today. And yet it is a less-researched area of study, when compared to the issues such as pensions or welfare programs. Health-care expenditures frequently comprise one of the highest portions of a country’s GDP, not uncommonly eclipsing national military spending. In light of the forthcoming era of superaged societies (with more than 20% of population over 65), aging and the rise of health-care costs are among the most critical issues of national, economic and social development.

Health Nov. 2007: China’s Bitter Little Pill

March 2008

The year 2007 could be a watershed year for China’s health-system reform. It is the year when the Chinese government acknowledged that it is a fundamental government responsibility to ensure that every citizen is able to enjoy basic health care. During the 17th Congress of China’s Communist party in October 2007, vice minister of health, Gao Qiang made it clear that the government is working on a health-system reform agenda. His statement that, “all Chinese people in urban and rural areas will have basic medical care and health services by 2020,” is a major commitment for change.

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