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September 2005

After the Victory, Can Koizumi Deliver?

September 2005

The recent victory of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan's snap election can only enhance the impression that Junichiro Koizumi is a gifted political leader. The prime minister's iconoclastic streak was much in evidence as he fought for passage of his postal-privatization bill over the summer. Refusing to compromise, confronting opponents within his own party, and ultimately placing the fate of his bill outside parliamentary organs altogether in a populist move that was as daring as it was confident, Mr.

Afghanistan's Uncertain Future

September 2005

The campaign poster that seems to adorn the back window of every taxi in Kabul promises "A new politics for a new world." And in the run-up to Afghanistan's first parliamentary elections in 30 years, it is all too easy to buy into this positive message. The posters belong to the campaign of Sabrina Sagheb, an attractive 25-year-old and the youngest woman standing in the election.

The Year China Started to Decline

September 2005

The turning points in the fall of great powers, or would-be great powers, are rarely noticed when they occur. Indeed, it is often when the rise of a new power seems unstoppable that the signs of change first emerge, and only in hindsight are they widely acknowledged. For instance, the historian Paul Kennedy pinpoints 1885 as the point of inflection in the United Kingdom's global power status in his 1988 book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

Less Saffron, More Spice

September 2005

Earlier this year, Lal Krishna Advani, president of India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, visited Pakistan. It was a nostalgic journey for Mr. Advani since he was born there.

The Great Chinese Bank Sale

September 2005

The hedge-fund manager sitting across the table shuts his eyes in frustration and slaps his palm to his forehead. "What on earth are they thinking? This is Latin America all over again. Everybody jumps in on a whim, and then they spend a decade digging themselves out.

Agreed Framework, Part Deux

September 2005

Last February, when North Korea trumpeted to the world that it did indeed possess "nukes" and felt "compelled" to suspend its participation in the six-party talks because of the "hostile" attitude of the United States, I wrote that eventually, Beijing would "[n]o doubtpersuade" Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table. "But it is a certainty," I predicted, "that there will be no progress at the six-party talks, however long they last, because it's not in Beijing's interests to see the process come to an end." I would like to be proven wrong, but the results of the fourth round of six-party talks that concluded in Beijing on Sept.

The Populist Threat To China's Health

September 2005

Two years after SARS, a report about China's medical system reform has reignited public concern about its urgency. Granted, the report, prepared by the State Council Development Research Center, used bold language and sharp analysis, and some of its specific points were not without value. However, the report proposed a comprehensive solution of "establishing a united medical system that covers the whole population," and this has set off a wave of public debate.

After the Victory, Can Koizumi Deliver?

September 2005

When Junichiro Koizumi steps down as Japanese prime minister–probably in September 2006–he will leave a political record in many ways as impressive as that of the other great shaper of Japanese politics, Kakuei Tanaka. His triumph in the September elections has already sealed his position as one of Japan's most important political leaders since the end of World War II. The challenge for Mr.

Thailand's Malaise Under Thaksin

September 2005

It's a bad idea for a Thai prime minister to let economic growth fall below 5%. History speaks for itself. In the 40 years before the 1997 economic crisis, it happened only six times: In 1957 there was a coup; in 1971 there was a coup; in 1975 one elected government was brought down in eight days, and its successor within a year; in 1985 there was a failed coup; and in 1997 there was a "quiet coup" that saw a change in prime ministers without an election.

New Pope, Old Story in Beijing

September 2005

God's will tends to work in mysterious ways–and certainly not as the news media have often anticipated. The death of Pope John Paul II, who was staunchly anti-Communist, sparked hope that his successor would stand a much better chance of mending ties with mainland China, severed since 1957. But recent developments showed that the early optimism was premature.

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